Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.
Identifieur interne : 000462 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000461; suivant : 000463Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.
Auteurs : Marius Gilbert [Belgique] ; Giulia Pullano [France] ; Francesco Pinotti [France] ; Eugenio Valdano [États-Unis] ; Chiara Poletto [France] ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle [France] ; Eric D'Ortenzio [France] ; Yazdan Yazdanpanah [France] ; Serge Paul Eholie [Côte d'Ivoire] ; Mathias Altmann [France] ; Bernardo Gutierrez [Royaume-Uni] ; Moritz U G. Kraemer [États-Unis] ; Vittoria Colizza [France]Source :
- Lancet (London, England) [ 1474-547X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6
PubMed: 32087820
Affiliations:
- Belgique, Côte d'Ivoire, France, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Aquitaine, Louisiane, Massachusetts, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Oxfordshire, Région de Bruxelles-Capitale, Île-de-France
- Bordeaux, Bruxelles, Oxford, Paris
- Université d'Oxford, Université libre de Bruxelles
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Kraemer</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France. 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Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Belgique</country><wicri:regionArea>Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Bruxelles</settlement><region nuts="2">Région de Bruxelles-Capitale</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université libre de Bruxelles</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pullano, Giulia" sort="Pullano, Giulia" uniqKey="Pullano G" first="Giulia" last="Pullano">Giulia Pullano</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France; Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services Laboratory at Orange Experience Design Laboratory Chatillion, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France; Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services Laboratory at Orange Experience Design Laboratory Chatillion, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pinotti, Francesco" sort="Pinotti, Francesco" uniqKey="Pinotti F" first="Francesco" last="Pinotti">Francesco Pinotti</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valdano, Eugenio" sort="Valdano, Eugenio" uniqKey="Valdano E" first="Eugenio" last="Valdano">Eugenio Valdano</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Center for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, LA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, LA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Louisiane</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="D Ortenzio, Eric" sort="D Ortenzio, Eric" uniqKey="D Ortenzio E" first="Eric" last="D'Ortenzio">Eric D'Ortenzio</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yazdanpanah, Yazdan" sort="Yazdanpanah, Yazdan" uniqKey="Yazdanpanah Y" first="Yazdan" last="Yazdanpanah">Yazdan Yazdanpanah</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eholie, Serge Paul" sort="Eholie, Serge Paul" uniqKey="Eholie S" first="Serge Paul" last="Eholie">Serge Paul Eholie</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Service des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Treichville, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire; Département de Dermatologie-Infectiologie, Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences Médicales, Université Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Côte d'Ivoire</country><wicri:regionArea>Service des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Treichville, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire; Département de Dermatologie-Infectiologie, Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences Médicales, Université Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Abidjan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Altmann, Mathias" sort="Altmann, Mathias" uniqKey="Altmann M" first="Mathias" last="Altmann">Mathias Altmann</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>IDLIC-Maladies Infectieuses Dans Les Pays à Ressources Limitées, INSERM U1219, Bordeaux, France; Bordeaux Population Health, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>IDLIC-Maladies Infectieuses Dans Les Pays à Ressources Limitées, INSERM U1219, Bordeaux, France; Bordeaux Population Health, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Bordeaux</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gutierrez, Bernardo" sort="Gutierrez, Bernardo" uniqKey="Gutierrez B" first="Bernardo" last="Gutierrez">Bernardo Gutierrez</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kraemer, Moritz U G" sort="Kraemer, Moritz U G" uniqKey="Kraemer M" first="Moritz U G" last="Kraemer">Moritz U G. Kraemer</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France. Electronic address: vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Belgique</li><li>Côte d'Ivoire</li><li>France</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Aquitaine</li><li>Louisiane</li><li>Massachusetts</li><li>Nouvelle-Aquitaine</li><li>Oxfordshire</li><li>Région de Bruxelles-Capitale</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Bordeaux</li><li>Bruxelles</li><li>Oxford</li><li>Paris</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université d'Oxford</li><li>Université libre de Bruxelles</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Belgique"><region name="Région de Bruxelles-Capitale"><name sortKey="Gilbert, Marius" sort="Gilbert, Marius" uniqKey="Gilbert M" first="Marius" last="Gilbert">Marius Gilbert</name></region></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Pullano, Giulia" sort="Pullano, Giulia" uniqKey="Pullano G" first="Giulia" last="Pullano">Giulia Pullano</name></region><name sortKey="Altmann, Mathias" sort="Altmann, Mathias" uniqKey="Altmann M" first="Mathias" last="Altmann">Mathias Altmann</name><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><name sortKey="D Ortenzio, Eric" sort="D Ortenzio, Eric" uniqKey="D Ortenzio E" first="Eric" last="D'Ortenzio">Eric D'Ortenzio</name><name sortKey="Pinotti, Francesco" sort="Pinotti, Francesco" uniqKey="Pinotti F" first="Francesco" last="Pinotti">Francesco Pinotti</name><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><name sortKey="Yazdanpanah, Yazdan" sort="Yazdanpanah, Yazdan" uniqKey="Yazdanpanah Y" first="Yazdan" last="Yazdanpanah">Yazdan Yazdanpanah</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Louisiane"><name sortKey="Valdano, Eugenio" sort="Valdano, Eugenio" uniqKey="Valdano E" first="Eugenio" last="Valdano">Eugenio Valdano</name></region><name sortKey="Kraemer, Moritz U G" sort="Kraemer, Moritz U G" uniqKey="Kraemer M" first="Moritz U G" last="Kraemer">Moritz U G. Kraemer</name></country><country name="Côte d'Ivoire"><noRegion><name sortKey="Eholie, Serge Paul" sort="Eholie, Serge Paul" uniqKey="Eholie S" first="Serge Paul" last="Eholie">Serge Paul Eholie</name></noRegion></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Gutierrez, Bernardo" sort="Gutierrez, Bernardo" uniqKey="Gutierrez B" first="Bernardo" last="Gutierrez">Bernardo Gutierrez</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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